Wednesday

Reducing Whose Burden?

Reducing Whose Burden?

Seasoned Lib Dem Conference-goers agree that the tax debate at Brighton in 2006 was one of the best since the Party was formed. The motion was passed by a clear majority, rejecting a 50% top rate of income tax and embracing a “Green Tax Switch” from productivity to pollution, with a call for
“further policies on land taxation to be developed, including consideration of the Lyons Review when it is published”. Note that it did not merely ask for existing policy to be further developed.

FPC moved fast and before Christmas re-convened the Tax Commission (TC) that had brought us Fairer, Simpler, Greener (FSG), with a new Chair, to specifically address a number of outstanding issues. The December 2006 FPC agenda paper acknowledged that “by far the most controversial aspect [of the TC’s work] will be the land tax question”. Some TC members saw this as an opportunity to replace our commitment to Local Income Tax (LIT) with a form of land taxation, not necessarily just – or even at all - at local level.

ALTER has long made clear that it doesn’t object to LIT – or ‘localised income tax’, as we prefer to call it – so long as a domestic property tax is retained at national level. As FSG noted, replacing Council Tax with LIT “will leave the UK in a unique position internationally of having no direct taxation of property at all”. Under Mike Williams’ chairmanship in 2006, the TC accepted this would be a very bad idea, confirming in the same paper that “there is good reason in principle why taxation of property should be retained”.

Development had already begun on an alternative proposal from Vince Cable for a national ‘progressive [domestic] property tax’ to ensure the Green Tax Switch wouldn’t be seen as a sham. As it stands (thanks to LIT), our tax policy actually increases the burden on wealth creating wage earners by around 3% - despite Conference asserting that it “supports the principle of using taxes on resource usage to help cut taxes on wealth creation” by endorsing FSG!

The Brighton debate and outcome showed that Conference understands that “‘ability to pay’ can relate to income or wealth or both”, and that it wants tax policies which tap into wealth. And the most important untapped and rapidly growing source of wealth in Britain today is the land under our houses.

Regrettably, it has become ingrained in the minds of the Party’s economically illiterate that “Axe The Tax” means ‘no more domestic property tax’. Even senior figures in the Party have been convinced by their own unsubstantiated propaganda that abolishing Council Tax (CT) whilst introducing a national Land Value Tax (LVT) would be an electoral disaster. This claim is made without any polling evidence. All the Party has ever done is compare LIT with CT. No poll has asked voters if they might prefer a ‘fairer property tax’ to LIT. The limited real evidence we do have, from residents’ surveys conducted in Newbury over the past nine months, clearly indicate that an overall majority of voters would prefer a fairer property tax to all other options, with twice as many supporting this as LIT. “Interesting”, said Chris Rennard on hearing this.

Reducing the Burden is the title of the draft policy paper now emerging from a seemingly semi-detached TC under its new chair Dick Newby. It is highly doubtful whether it meets Conference’s wish to develop new land tax policies, and it will be interesting to see what the Federal Policy Committee (FPC) does about that. The draft paper does at least offer a solution to the duplicity of a 2p Green Tax Switch and a 4.5p LIT rate, which currently raises the overall burden on jobs. Let’s hope both FPC and Conference approve of that anyway!

But it is the absence of any coherent policy on taxing the unearned wealth accruing to the owners of landed property that continues to confound any Liberal Democrat claims to care about the young and economically excluded. Despite acknowledging in FSG that “tax reform should take account of inter-generational [wealth] issues”, there was nothing in FSG - and there remains nothing in Reducing the Burden - that actually does anything to address this.

The arbitrary and widely trailed million pound property tax is there, but it is a sorry shadow of what might have been achieved – without compromising LIT! It smacks of gesture politics and has already been dubbed an “envy tax”. The problem remains that, when CT is axed for LIT, the vast majority of homes will be untaxed. Average prices will rise by over £20,000 and this Party will have further exacerbated the growing generational crisis in affordable housing.

There are 2 other key policy papers also in production that will be debated by Conference this autumn; on Poverty & Inequality and on Climate Change. Although both will no doubt contain worthy attempts at reversing the rich-poor divide and rising global warming, the opportunity for the concurrent Tax paper to lead the way with a coherent fiscal thread now seems certain to be lost. Tax reform is fundamental to tackling wealth inequity and the efficient use of finite resources. Taxing land values is a critical part of the solution. While all 3 papers may nod in the right direction, none seem able or willing to commit.

Who cares? The young do for a start. By a majority of 10 to 1, the 2007 LDYS Spring Conference passed a motion calling for LVT and not LIT to replace CT. The next generation has a vested interest in shifting tax to a sustainable base – economically and environmentally. There are also many Green Lib Dems who will be unhappy to see no further developments on LVT – arguably the “greenest tax of all”. Every other eco-tax, with the exception of LVT, will erode its own yield. They must do, or they aren’t changing unsustainable behaviour!

Just before the TC was re-convened, no less an authority than UN-HABITAT asserted that “LVT is the appropriate instrument for the urgent fight against global inequality and poverty….. Without land tax there is a vast amount of land speculation which is pushing the price of land sky high, making it unaffordable for the poor in cities.” This was part of a contract to develop an on-line Global Land Tool to help public officials understand and implement LVT. It should be ready by August, the product of collaborative work by 30 experts in over a dozen countries, led by an American Green Party activist.

Yet we have a tax policy that will remain unsustainable and unfair to millions, despite two years of discussion and FSG’s highlighting the shortcomings, as well as the solution. A century ago, the great reforming Liberal Budget of 1909 was inspired by Henry George’s seminal work Progress and Poverty – in its very title encapsulating the essential truth: that wealth arising from economic progress which accrues, untaxed, to the ‘owners’ of land or natural resources will inexorably lead to inequality, inefficiency and growing injustice.

Average house prices have been rising by an amount equivalent to twice the average annual take-home wage. No wonder gambling attracts the poor and families in rented housing despair: social exclusion is largely the product of a failure to tax land values. Two hundred years after Parliament ended slavery, will Liberal Democrats wilfully flinch from ending the enslavement by poverty that failing to recover ‘economic rent’ inflicts on asset poor workers?

TC was directed by Conference and FPC to deal with the “practical issues which would have to be resolved to make a property tax workable”. Yet when it came to the scheduled TC meeting on domestic land and property tax, the Chair immediately called for and won a vote to stop ALTER’s detailed paper on the subject even being discussed! Apart from the aforementioned High Value Property Tax, which may or may not be billed in the paper as a step towards LVT, the TC has really only developed our existing policy to replace business rates with Site Value Rating, the local form of LVT. It remains the case that no “further policies on land tax” are in the new tax paper at all.

The first practical issue is the registration and valuation of all land sites. If we embark on LVT/SVR for commercial land only, we multiply the problems for valuers and tax administrators. Far simpler to assess all commercial and domestic land from the outset, leading to a single unified property tax system with no artificial boundaries between residential and non-residential land.

Since Labour came to power, the market value of the nation’s housing stock has tripled to over £3.5 trillion. There has been only a 5% increase in housing stock, so almost the entire rise in value has been due to land – not bricks and mortar. By levying a mere 0.5% annually of the increase in value under Labour (about £1000 on a £300k house) and assuming £100k tax-free ‘Homestead Allowance’, we could raise over £10 billion in revenue, allowing that sum to be cut from income tax and other economically damaging imposts. It would ensure a ‘soft landing’ when the house price bubble eventually bursts and we could aim to maintain house prices thereafter in line with inflation.

We can sell LVT as just, sustainable and economically sound: it needs to be introduced carefully but it is far more important to introduce it now. It would be contemptibly foolish if we allowed our only property tax, however regressive, to be abolished without a progressive replacement. We will have betrayed posterity as well as our Liberal past.

Unless we join up our thinking with LVT, the ‘reduced burden’ of taxes to which the TC’s draft policy paper refers will be enjoyed not by the poor, the young or tomorrow’s entrepreneurs, but by the asset rich, the comfortable and their unproductive tax advisers. The wealth divide will widen further and the climate – socially, economically and ecologically – will get a whole lot worse.

Tony Vickers is a lecturer in ‘green taxes’ and researcher on land policy at Kingston University, a councillor in Newbury and Chair of the Lib Dem campaign group Action for Land Taxation and Economic Reform (ALTER) www.libdemsalter.org.uk He has been a member of the Tax Commission since June 2005.

Sunday

BAGHDAD -- An al-Qaida-affiliated insurgent group is giving Christians in Baghdad a stark choice.

Militant threat: convert or else



June 09, 2007 12:00am



Christian families flee a Muslim imposed Tax.

The 'jizya' pay it, convert or get out.

Tower hunt for disease source

Tower hunt for disease source. Footscray and Seddon Cooling Systems 1 of 16 out of order in area. Outbreaks of Legionella bacteria are linked to towers.

Home buyers riding razor's edge

Home buyers riding razor's edge



Mary Bolling



June 09, 2007 12:00amIRST home buyers are facing the highest prices, biggest loans, and longest mortgage repayments ever.



But as desperate families borrow close to 100 per cent of their home's price, experts predict looming interest rate rises could push plenty of family budgets over the edge.



Australian Bureau of Statistics data yesterday showed more people were borrowing to get into the market.



Earliest ABS figures available show Melbourne's average first-home loan size in July 1991 was $67,500.



Ten years ago, in March 1997, it had jumped to $101,300 and this March it was up to $231,600.



Swinburne University housing researcher Terry Burke said it's now normal for first-home buyers to sign 30-year mortgages, and to borrow 95 per cent of the price of their home.



"Many first home buyers are right on the margins and once they've secured their house, most of them have very little savings," Mr Burke said.



"It would only take a very small increase in interest rates to push them over the edge."



This month, Housing Industry Association figures showed the great Australian dream has never been more expensive, with the median first-home price at $370,000.



The average income of households buying their first home is up to $93,400.



Australians for Affordable Housing spokesman David Imber said those figures are clearly shutting out average Australians.



"House prices are growing at more than double the rate of income growth," Mr Imber said.



"We keep hearing about low unemployment, but the average Australian wage is $55,000 a year -- being in an average or above-average job doesn't allow home ownership."



Mr Imber said high prices were creating a social divide between home owners and renters.



"It really is quite shocking we could have a generation of renters" he said.



Mr Imber wants government policies to help first home-buyers compete against investors.



Recent first-home buyer Paul Carboon, 36, agrees young Australians need help entering the market.



With his wife Leanne, and two young children, Mr Carboon hunted for months before securing their Notting Hill home.



"Trying to buy is a full time job and it's very depressing -- first to sign up for a 30-year loan, then to keep missing out at auctions," he said.



"And the people who are buying their third and fourth investment property are the ones that we were competing against."

Tuesday

Toorak mansion sold to mystery buyer for a record $18 million.

After a knock on the door and a walk thru, an unknown buyer puts an offer. The buyers advocate compares the sale to an 1880's gold rush. The 100-square two-storey English style-mansion was sold about five years earlier for $5.4 million. A little later the parcel of land next door (a tennis court) was bought for another $1.2 million. About $1 million was spent on renovations. As is usual for titleholders of highly prized sites, criminal fines for insider trading, & allegations of tax evasion using a Charitable Foundation plagued the vendor. While the price is believed to be a record, it might be trumped by a bid for a similar site being marketed as Stonnington mansion. 29 May 2007 Craig Binnie and Nicole Lindsay Herald Sun

Wednesday

April Foreclosure Filings More Than Double Over 2006

(Update1)
By Bob Ivry May 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. homeowners entered the foreclosure process in April at more than double the rate of a year ago as tightening credit made it more difficult to refinance and a swelling supply of unsold homes made it tough to sell. The number of homeowners in all three phases of foreclosure rose last month over the same period a year ago, according to Sacramento-based Foreclosures.com, which gathers data from county courthouses nationwide. Those receiving their first notice of foreclosure from a bank climbed 127 percent, those with homes going up for sale by auction jumped 164 percent and those whose homes were repossessed by banks went up 40 percent. Eight of 10 subprime loans, given to borrowers with bad or limited credit histories, adjust over time to higher interest rates and many homeowners can no longer afford their mortgages. With existing home sales at a four-year low, it's more difficult to sell because there are so many homes on the market. ``The housing boom was a house of cards,'' said Alexis McGee, president of Foreclosures.com. ``A lot of people who are living beyond their means and borrowing from Peter to pay Paul find that it's starting to catch up with them. We're seeing the effects of aggressive lending and minimal standards for underwriting.'' The number of foreclosure filings decreased in April in all three categories compared with March, Foreclosures.com said. Notices of default dropped 16 percent, auctions decreased 12 percent and bank repossessions fell 14 percent. The March 2007 numbers compared with a year earlier were similar to the increases of April 2007 over April 2006. First filings increased 126 percent in March 2007 compared with March 2006, notices of auction climbed 121 percent and the number of bank repossessions grew 51 percent, Foreclosures.com said. Avoiding Foreclosure The numbers show that many homes that begin the foreclosure process don't end up owned by banks, McGee said. ``A lot of these homeowners are getting new financing or they're selling it before the auction,'' McGee said. ``The owner is able to figure out a way to get his house in order before his house is taken away.'' In the first four months of this year, homes in all three phases of the foreclosure process increased from the same period a year ago, Foreclosures.com said. Notices of default and auctions more than doubled, while bank takeovers, or REOs for ``real estate owned,'' rose 39 percent. Purchases of existing homes dropped in March to an annual rate of 6.12 million, from 6.68 million in February, the biggest decline since January 1989, said the Washington-based National Association of Realtors. Sales fell 11.3 percent compared with a year earlier. According to Zurich-based Credit Suisse, 82 percent of subprime mortgages have an adjustable rate provision, meaning that payments start with low or ``teaser'' rates and adjust to a higher rate after a set number of years. To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Ivry in New York at bivry@bloomberg.net . Last Updated: May 7, 2007 17:36 EDT

Tuesday

What the gatekeeper saw

Rate change will worsen rent squeeze 28/3/2007 At present, council rates in NSW are based on the value of land alone. If the rating base is changed to the value of land plus buildings, as suggested by Noel Taylor (ST Letters, 4 Feb 2007), the consequences will include the following: * Land owners who build new accommodation or extend existing accommodation will be penalized with higher rate bills. So there will be less building and extending. The shortage of rental accommodation will worsen, making rents less affordable, and jobs will be lost in the building industry. * Families who modify their homes at great expense for the benefit of disabled members will be hit with higher rate bills. * Valuations of buildings will become critical for tax purposes and will therefore need to be more accurate, hence more intrusive, involving more internal inspections. * Landlords will allow properties to deteriorate because run-down buildings will be taxed less than well-maintained buildings. Land-value rating avoids these problems because the land, unlike any buildings erected on it, is not the product of any human effort that can be deterred by taxation. — Rejected by the Sunday Telegraph (Sydney). Posted by G.R. Putland.

Monday

No Spring Thaw for Housing

Spring is usually the hot time for home sales. But this year, March results were terrible—and April and May don't look much better By Maya Roney Maybe you guessed it, but now it's official: The housing market has not hit bottom. Poor home sales in cold-and-quiet February may be excusable, but in March, April, and May, they are a sure sign of distress. The latest numbers indicate that the spring of 2007 will go down as one of the worst real estate seasons in years. ...a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, dropped 10.5% from March, 2006, and 4.9% from February, 2007, to 104.3, the lowest reading since March, 2003. ...existing home sales fell 8.4% year over year, marking the sharpest plunge in 18 years. ...Pat McPherron, housing economist for Moody's Economy.com says "If April doesn't go well, then that's it. This is the market." ...the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Index measuring builder confidence fell to 33 from 36 in March (a reading below 50 means most respondents view conditions as poor). ...house prices accelerated faster than incomes during the housing boom. "What [subprime lenders] have done is stopped the bleeding." says McPherron

Godliness is close to speculation.

As a Big Landowner Plans to Sell, Mouths Begin to Water





Published: May 6, 2007



Brookyn Heights

In the lobbies of some of the buildings near the Brooklyn waterfront owned by the Watchtower Bible and Tract Society, visitors can pick up plastic-wrapped packets of postcards depicting the organization’s various properties. On one, an aerial view of Brooklyn Heights, it seems as if nearly every third building is a Watchtower dormitory.



Since 1909, the neighborhood has been home to Brooklyn Bethel, as the organization, whose members are known as Jehovah’s Witnesses, calls its world headquarters. Other postcards in the packet, though, tell a story of change: They show neatly dressed volunteers at work in a sprawling new complex north of the city in Wallkill, N.Y., where the Witnesses moved their Bible- and magazine-printing operations in 2004.



Now, the residential buildings are beginning to go, too: The Witnesses plan to sell six of their Brooklyn Heights residences, including the venerable 12-story Standish Arms Hotel building, as part of what they are calling an organizational consolidation. With the printing presses gone and the former warehouse and shipping facility at 360 Furman Street sold, Witnesses spokesmen said, the organization needs less space for members to live.



Besides the Standish Arms, at 169 Columbia Heights, between Clark and Pierrepont Streets, the buildings for sale include four-story and seven-story apartment buildings on the same street, and three 19th-century houses nearby.



The offerings, which were reported in The Brooklyn Eagle, have Brooklyn Heights residents buzzing about the potential for the new properties hitting the real estate market. Residents are also speculating about the future of the former Bossert and Leverich Towers Hotels, two other meticulously restored buildings the organization owns in the neighborhood.



“When people hear that they’re selling the Standish Hotel, they start drooling about the Bossert,” Robert Perris, district manager of Brooklyn Community Board 2, said of the opulent tower at Montague and Hicks Streets, where the Brooklyn Dodgers celebrated their victory in the 1955 World Series. “The speculation runs rampant.”



According to Richard Devine, a Watchtower spokesman, the organization is not working with an outside real estate agent and has no set asking prices, but it will evaluate offers as they come in, as it did with the sale of 360 Furman and three other buildings on Livingston, Hicks and Clark Streets that the organization recently sold.



As for the other 24 buildings that Watchtower owns in the Heights and nearby Dumbo, the organization, as it often does, is keeping its plans close to the vest.



“Currently we don’t have any plans to sell any more,” Mr. Devine said. “At least not at this time.”



ed.,So much for Lev 25:23

Sunday

Review of Steve Keen, Debunking Economics:

The Naked Emperor of the Social Sciences, London: Zed Books, 2001 Geoff Harcourt (Cambridge University, UK) Steve Keen's Debunking Economics is a provocative book; deliberately so is my conjecture. The anti-Vietnam war movement in Adelaide dichotomised into either militants or moderates. I belonged to the second group, because I thought it the proper way for academics to play a public role in vital political and social issues. I also thought it would be counter-productive to do otherwise (no prize for guessing the respective weights attached to the two reasons). Steve, I'm sure, would have been a militant. Certainly that is his approach here. I worry that this may backfire, for I have sympathy with his aims and many of his arguments and judgements. Time will tell who is right (perhaps I could say that the militants wanted the Australian revolution to occur first, then the troops could be brought home and conscription abolished. The moderates thought it better to get an ALP government elected because these two objectives were core items in Labor's election manifesto). Keen's object is to go behind what is currently taught to economics undergraduates in order to reveal the conceptual bases of their instruction and the ideological purposes involved. He comes to his task with a thorough knowledge of the classics of the subject, of Adam Smith as well as of Karl Marx, and with considerable analytical skills of the modern sort. He is a graduate of the political economy movement at the University of Sydney, and his Ph.D. dissertation was an amalgam of the theories of Dick Goodwin and Hy Minsky, two modern maverick greats, both alas now dead. Goodwin was a pupil and then a colleague of Wassily Leontief and Joseph Schumpeter at Harvard, and a pupil of Roy Harrod and Henry Phelps Brown at Oxford. He was much influenced by Maynard Keynes's writings and by Richard Kahn, Joan Robinson and Piero Sraffa of his Cambridge, England colleagues in the post-war period. Though he ceased to be a member of the communist party by the 1940s he remained an informed fan of Marx's writings, especially of Marx's deep knowledge of how capitalism works. (Joan Robinson used to say of Schumpeter that he was Marx with the adjectives changes.) This background, together with his love of Wicksell's economics and teaching physics at Harvard during World War II, led to Goodwin's pioneering contribution of models of cyclical growth. They incorporated his insight that trend and cycle are indissolubly mixed, not separable and determined by different sets of factors, as usually happens in orthodox economics. Minsky also knew his Marx. He worked with Oskar Lange as a young man. His great contribution was to show how real and monetary factors interrelated to produce cycles as capitalist economies evolved through time. While he drew on the writings of Keynes and Michal Kalecki, his financial instability hypothesis associated with the analysis of the effects on firms and on the economy, of the non-realisation of the expected cash flows arising from investment projects, is highly original. It has proved of greater and greater value in our understanding in recent years of the financial instabilities and crises in the world economy. Keen's contribution is to put these two strands together to provide a structure for illuminating the malfunctionings of modern interrelated capitalist economies. He does this in a way which not only draws on the insights of our past masters but also employs the most modern of analytical techniques. With such abackground it is easy to understand his horror at the contents of modern textbooks.Increasingly they model the capitalist world as though it were conforming to the dictates of Frank Ramsey's benevolent dictator, choosing optimum paths of accumulation over time for all its citizens. Keynes's long run in which "we are all dead" (well, he's dead and we are in the long run, as an IMF wit recently put it) has returned to dominate our supposed understanding of what is happening.Short-term instabilities are viewed as mere aberrations, fluctuations around this long-period optimum trajectory. Against this macroeconomic background, modern microeconomics has a bias towards examining the behaviour of competitive markets (as set out most fully and rigorously in the Arrow-Debreu model of general equilibrium), not as reference points but as approximations to what is actually going on. Of course, departures from them are taught, increasingly by the clever application of game theory. Moreover, the deficiencies of real markets of all sorts are examined in the light of the implications, for example, of the findings of the asymmetric information theorists (three of whom - George Akerlof, Michael Spence, and Joe Stiglitz - have just (10/10/01) been awarded this year's Nobel Prize. From Amartya Sen on, the Nobel Prize electors seem to be back on track). While professional economists increasingly get to know of these and other developments, often through the pages of the excellent Journal of Economic Perspectives, the most used undergraduate textbooks are usually light years away from such enlightenment. Moreover, alternative approaches in our subject, economic history and the history of economic thought are either being marginalized in, or driven out altogether from most undergraduate courses. Keen's book is directed against these trends. He examines what is taught in macroeconomic and microeconomic courses and what their deficiencies and shortcomings are. And he suggest alternatives, some of which come out of the many influences on him and his own contributions. As I said, I understand his impatience and anger and I applaud his aims. I just worry that the tone of the book and, sometimes, his assertions may allow critics to sidetrack the arguments along byways which may seem plausible but ultimately miss the point - to the detriment of the training of future generations in what Keynes memorably called "our miserable subject". Nevertheless, if I were given a free hand to design a course, I would urge my pupils to read both Keen's book and Hugh Stretton's marvellous alternative text (Economics: A New Introduction, published by Pluto in 1999) as well as the best of the mainstream texts now available. (I would also urge them to read some of the great originals too!) Only then would I feel they had been introduced to the appropriate material with which to make up their own minds what approach(es) to take in their studies. As it is, without the insights of a Keen and a Stretton (and of the past greats), I fear we are likely to produce well trained but uncritical cogs, the better to fit the needs of our modern industrialised societies. It is not the proper role of university teachers either to be hired prize fighters or produce them. SUGGESTED CITATION: Geoff Harcourt(2002)“Review of Steve Keen, Debunking Economics: The Naked Emperor of the Social Sciences", post-autistic economics review : issue no. 11, January, article 5. http://www.btinternet.com/~pae_news/review/issue11.htm __________________ This review originally appeared in the Financial Review

Review of Steve Keen, Debunking Economics:

The Naked Emperor of the Social Sciences London: Zed Books, 2001 Steve Keen's Debunking Economics is a provocative book; deliberately so is my conjecture. The anti-Vietnam war movement in Adelaide dichotomised into either militants or moderates. I belonged to the second group, because I thought it the proper way for academics to play a public role in vital political and social issues. I also thought it would be counter-productive to do otherwise (no prize for guessing the respective weights attached to the two reasons). Steve, I'm sure, would have been a militant. Certainly that is his approach here. I worry that this may backfire, for I have sympathy with his aims and many of his arguments and judgements. Time will tell who is right (perhaps I could say that the militants wanted the Australian revolution to occur first, then the troops could be brought home and conscription abolished. The moderates thought it better to get an ALP government elected because these two objectives were core items in Labor's election manifesto). Keen's object is to go behind what is currently taught to economics undergraduates in order to reveal the conceptual bases of their instruction and the ideological purposes involved. He comes to his task with a thorough knowledge of the classics of the subject, of Adam Smith as well as of Karl Marx, and with considerable analytical skills of the modern sort.He is a graduate of the political economy movement at the University of Sydney, and his Ph.D. dissertation was an amalgam of the theories of Dick Goodwin and Hy Minsky, two modern maverick greats, both alas now dead. Goodwin was a pupil and then a colleague of Wassily Leontief and Joseph Schumpeter at Harvard, and a pupil of Roy Harrod and Henry Phelps Brown at Oxford. He was much influenced by Maynard Keynes's writings and by Richard Kahn, Joan Robinson and Piero Sraffa of his Cambridge, England colleagues in the post-war period. Though he ceased to be a member of the communist party by the 1940s he remained an informed fan of Marx's writings, especially of Marx's deep knowledge of how capitalism works. (Joan Robinson used to say of Schumpeter that he was Marx with the adjectives changes.) This background, together with his love of Wicksell's economics and teaching physics at Harvard during World War II, led to Goodwin's pioneering contribution of models of cyclical growth. They incorporated his insight that trend and cycle are indissolubly mixed, not separable and determined by different sets of factors, as usually happens in orthodox economics. Minsky also knew his Marx. He worked with Oskar Lange as a young man. His great contribution was to show how real and monetary factors interrelated to produce cycles as capitalist economies evolved through time. While he drew on the writings of Keynes and Michal Kalecki, his financial instability hypothesis associated with the analysis of the effects on firms and on the economy, of the non-realisation of the expected cash flows arising from investment projects, is highly original. It has proved of greater and greater value in our understanding in recent years of the financial instabilities and crises in the world economy. Keen's contribution is to put these two strands together to provide a structure for illuminating the malfunctionings of modern interrelated capitalist economies. He does this in a way which not only draws on the insights of our past masters but also employs the most modern of analytical techniques. With such a background it is easy to understand his horror at the contents of modern textbooks. Increasingly they model the capitalist world as though it were conforming to the dictates of Frank Ramsey's benevolent dictator, choosing optimum paths of accumulation over time for all its citizens. Keynes's long run in which "we are all dead" (well, he's dead and we are in the long run, as an IMF wit recently put it) has returned to dominate our supposed understanding of what is happening. Short-term instabilities are viewed as mere aberrations, fluctuations around this long-period optimum trajectory. Against this macroeconomic background, modern microeconomics has a bias towards examining the behaviour of competitive markets (as set out most fully and rigorously in the Arrow-Debreu model of general equilibrium), not as reference points but as approximations to what is actually going on. Of course, departures from them are taught, increasingly by the clever application of game theory. Moreover, the deficiencies of real markets of all sorts are examined in the light of the implications, for example, of the findings of the asymmetric information theorists (three of whom - George Akerlof, Michael Spence, and Joe Stiglitz - have just (10/10/01) been awarded this year's Nobel Prize. From Amartya Sen on, the Nobel Prize electors seem to be back on track). While professional economists increasingly get to know of these and other developments, often through the pages of the excellent Journal of Economic Perspectives, the most used undergraduate textbooks are usually light years away from such enlightenment. Moreover, alternative approaches in our subject, economic history and the history of economic thought are either being marginalized in, or driven out altogether from most undergraduate courses. Keen's book is directed against these trends. He examines what is taught in macroeconomic and microeconomic courses and what their deficiencies and shortcomings are. And he suggest alternatives, some of which come out of the many influences on him and his own contributions. As I said, I understand his impatience and anger and I applaud his aims. I just worry that the tone of the book and, sometimes, his assertions may allow critics to sidetrack the arguments along byways which may seem plausible but ultimately miss the point - to the detriment of the training of future generations in what Keynes memorably called "our miserable subject". Nevertheless, if I were given a free hand to design a course, I would urge my pupils to read both Keen's book and Hugh Stretton's marvellous alternative text (Economics: A New Introduction, published by Pluto in 1999) as well as the best of the mainstream texts now available. (I would also urge them to read some of the great originals too!) Only then would I feel they had been introduced to the appropriate material with which to make up their own minds what approach(es) to take in their studies. As it is, without the insights of a Keen and a Stretton (and of the past greats), I fear we are likely to produce well trained but uncritical cogs, the better to fit the needs of our modern industrialised societies. It is not the proper role of university teachers either to be hired prize fighters or produce them. Geoff Harcourt(2002) “Review of Steve Keen, Debunking Economics: The Naked Emperor of the Social Sciences", post-autistic economics review : issue no. 11, January, article 5. __________________ This review originally appeared in the Financial Review

Tenants forced to give up pets.

Wednesday, 25 April 2007, 15:09 GMT 16:09 UK People who rent property in Jersey have been forced to give up their pets because of restrictive contracts, said Jersey's Animal Shelter (JSPCA). Residents who rent houses or flats have to obey a clause not to keep pets. JSPCA's chief executive Stephen Coleman said the amount of animals left in their care had risen by 15-20%. He said there was a significant rise in cats. But letting agent Julian Cubbage said he did not think renting contracts were becoming more stringent. He said there had always been an historic sensitivity to animals and that pets were not allowed in homes because of the damage they may cause. "There's also a nuisance factor to other owners - it's not very satisfactory if every time you walk past a flat door you have a dog barking at you from the other side," he said. Mr Cubbage advised residents to question the contracts as compromises could be made.

Tuesday

Real Estate Tax Levied On 300,000 Houses Up 90%

donga.com APRIL 30, 2007 03:43 The publicly assessed values of apartment and row houses largely increased this year by an average of 22.8 percent from last year. Detached houses increased by 6.22 percent in value.

In particular, there has been a sudden rise in many areas within the Seoul Metropolitan Area, including Yangcheon-gu (46.1 percent) in Seoul, and Gwacheon City (49.2 percent) in Gyeonggi Province. As a result, the tax burden caused by holding real estate, including composite real estate taxes and property taxes, increased.

The Ministry of Construction and Transportation (MOCT) announced yesterday that this year’s publicly assessed value of 9.03 million apartment houses would be released on April 30. The publicly assessed value of 4.05 million detached houses will also be released by each municipal and regional office on April 30.

This publicly assessed value has been confirmed through an opinion hearing period last month. Any issues can be raised to the MOCT, municipal and regional offices, and the Korea Appraisal Board by May 30. The number of houses valued over 600 million won almost doubles- As the publicly assessed value rose remarkably, the number of houses valued over 600 million won, which is a basis for composite real estate taxes, increased to 300,711, up by almost 90 percent from last year (159,115). Among the houses valued over 600 million won, 99.8 percent of apartment houses and 97.1 percent of detached houses are located in the Seoul Metropolitan Area, including Seoul City. According to an estimate conducted by the National Tax Service (NTS), the number of households subject to composite real estate taxes amounts to 381,000 this year, up 149,000 from last year (232,000). This is just from taking into consideration houses owned by individuals and, if corporation-owned houses and land were also considered, composite real estate taxes would be imposed on 505,000 households. The reason why the number of households subject to composite real estate taxes is larger than that of houses valued over 600 million won is because publicly assessed values of all the houses owned by a household are added all together to determine on whether composite a real estate tax should be levied. For example, in cases when a husband and wife own 400 million won and 300 million won apartment houses, a composite real estate tax is not imposed on each apartment house. However, the household should pay composite real estate tax based on the total of each apartment’s value. Those who own only one house will pay 2.31 million won on average in composite real estate taxes- The composite real estate tax burden for households is expected to increase rapidly. According to the NTS, this year’s average composite real estate tax burden for households that paid the composite real estate tax last year amounts to 4,743,000 won, more than double last year’s (2,108,000 won). This is because publicly assessed value has increased remarkably and the taxable amount basis increased to 80 percent from 70 percent last year. Households subject to composite real estate taxes for the first time this year will pay 799,000 won on average. Also, among those who own only one house, 139,000 households became subject to that composite real estate tax this year. These households will pay 2,317,000 won composite real estate taxes on average. Property tax increased by 11.1 percent on average compared to last year, but the tax amount imposed on houses valued over 600 million won jumped by 39.3 percent on average. Accordingly, holding taxes, which are the sum of composite real estate taxes and property taxes, are expected to be close to the tax burden ceiling (three times the tax paid previous year) in many areas. In terms of some areas which local governments exempted from property taxes, real estate holding taxes will actually triple since the exempted amount is not considered when determining the tax burden ceiling. According to Kim Jong-pil, a tax expert, a 34-pyeong unit in Eunma Apartments in Daechi-dong, Gangnam-gu, Seoul was subject to holding taxes of 2.16 million won last year; that went up to 5.80 million won this year. The holding tax amount for a 35-pyeong unit in new town complex 3 located in Mok-dong, Yangcheon-gu will almost triple from 1.35 million won to 3.71 million won. Sudden decline in sale prices followed by civil appeal for “publicly assessed vale adjustments”- There are some areas where publicly assessed value is higher than market value. Some publicly assessed values were dated on January 1, 2007, a time when the market value was higher than now. The actual transaction price of a 34-pyeong unit Eunma apartment reported on April 16 was one billion won, which is lower than this year’s publicly assessed value (1.008 billion won). If house prices continue to fall, the publicly assessed value, which was determined based on 80 percent of market value, will highly likely become similar to or higher than present house prices. Due to a large decline in sale prices, there has been a wave of civil petitions to lower publicly assessed value. The number of petitions sent to the MOCT in the 20 days after March 14 amounted to 56,355, up more than six times from last year (9,000). The MOCT explained, “The publicly assessed value cannot be readjusted with house prices changes since the assessment basis date, according to the rules.”

Monday

Fear of Foreclosure

Published: April 22, 2007

WHEN Matilde Amico’s employer cut back her overtime in September, her working hours as a dispatcher for an alarm company fell from a high of 70 hours a week to about 40.

November she had missed two mortgage payments on the three-bedroomranch in Mastic that she had bought as a single mother in 1989, and hadkept by working either two jobs or long overtime hours. She received anotice from her lender threatening foreclosure.

“At that point, I didn’t know what I was going to do,” Ms. Amico said recently. She lives in the house with her 24-year-old son, whose own small business recently failed. “I could see the sheriff coming and putting all of my things on the street.”

Ms. Amico told her story at a news conference held on April 12 by Suffolk County officials to announce that there is help available for homeowners facing foreclosure.

The county at first said the number of foreclosures on Long Island in 2007 was expected to total 18,854, citing data received from the office of Senator Charles E. Schumer.

But the senator’s office later said that the county had misinterpreted the figures and that the 18,000 represented mortgages whose interest rates are likely to rise substantially this year.

It is a big step from rising mortgages rates to foreclosure, however. In all of 2006, 192 homes were lost through foreclosure on Long Island, according to RealtyTrac Inc., a firm that tracks foreclosures nationwide. (Other homes, of course, may have been sold to head off legal action.)

Foreclosure actions are often a result of illness or loss of income, as in Ms. Amico’s case. But many also result from risky loans given to home buyers during the recent real estate boom, officials say.

Higher payments have come due on large numbers of subprime mortgages, putting more borrowers in difficulty. Such mortgages — which often start with low “teaser” rates and then spike up to higher levels after a few years — are usually made to borrowers who have poor credit backgrounds or whose income may not be high enough to comfortably afford larger monthly payments.

As Steve Levy, the Suffolk County executive, said at the meeting, “Now we’re starting to see that these folks are starting to fall behind on mortgage payments.”

One recourse, a service set up by the county, refers those facing foreclosure to counselors certified by the United States Department of Housing and Urban Development. The counselors can help homeowners take one of several possible paths, depending on the severity of their financial plight: renegotiate monthly mortgage payments; provide bridge loans that don’t have to be paid back until the house is sold or refinanced; refinance the mortgage to a lower interest rate; or sell the house and find other living arrangements. Nassau announced a similar program the same day. In Suffolk, the telephone number is (631) 853-4800; in Nassau, (516) 571-4663. The counseling and assistance are free.

In the three days after the announcement, Suffolk received nearly 300 calls from homeowners. Nassau reported 260 calls.

The county can also provide limited financial assistance, up to $1,000 per homeowner, from a federally financed homeless prevention program. “This isn’t throwing good money after bad,” Mr. Levy said. “Foreclosed homes become eyesores in the community; they devalue other homes nearby.”

A day before the Suffolk press conference, the Joint Economic Committee of Congress proposed in a report released in Washington that the government provide funds ($3,300 per household) to help prevent foreclosures nationwide.

In the report, Nassau and Suffolk Counties ranked 37th among the 50 metropolitan areas with the highest foreclosure rates in 2006. (Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, Mich., was first.) Across New York, 13 percent of subprime loans were 60 or more days delinquent as of the end of February, up seven percentage points since February 2005, with the highest increases in Long Island, Dutchess County and New York City, according to the report.

While Ms. Amico had a fixed-rate 30-year mortgage, her situation illustrated how quickly even a solid homeowner can fall into dire straits. In her case, help came by way of a friend who referred her to the Long Island Housing Partnership, a nonprofit organization that provides free counseling and garners public funds to help build affordable housing.

Kisha Wright, a counselor at the partnership, called the lender who held Ms. Amico’s mortgage and tried to restructure the loan. When the bank turned Ms. Amico down, the partnership lent her $13,500 in New York State grant money. Together with $4,000 that Ms. Amico had saved, the amount covered seven missed mortgage payments. Meanwhile, Ms. Amico was able to restore her overtime hours.

Ms. Wright said that 59 homeowners facing foreclosure had come to the partnership for help in the last three months. In previous years, there would typically have been “only a handful” of such cases in the same period.

By the time Ms. Wright sees them, homeowners have typically missed 3 to 12 months of payments.

The situation is likely to worsen on Long Island and elsewhere in the country, local and United States government officials say.

“Subprime loan foreclosures are expected to increase in 2007 and 2008 as 1.8 million hybrid ARMs — many of which were sold to borrowers who cannot afford them — reset in a weakening housing market environment,” the Congressional report read. (Hybrid adjustable rate mortgages have rates that climb, but only after an initial rate that can be locked in for, say, 3, 5, 7 or 10 years.)

Borrowers with interest-only mortgages may eventually be saddled with an additional payment against the principal amount of the loan. That could as much as double monthly payments, according to Pearl Kamer, chief economist of the Long Island Association.

With a glut of homes on the market, she added, prices are declining, particularly for homes listed for more than $500,000. And lenders have tightened requirements for borrowers, fewer of whom can thus qualify for mortgages.

She said she believed all neighborhoods on Long Island would be affected, not only the less affluent ones. When real estate was booming, less affluent buyers “got into these more expensive homes with subprime mortgages,” Ms. Kamer said, often to move to a better school district.

As home prices drop, she said, many homeowners are stuck owing more money than they can recover by selling the house, which could lead to foreclosure if they are unable to keep up with the monthly payments.

Ms. Amico of Mastic said she was initially embarrassed to face Ms. Wright, the counselor who helped her. “I thought, what was this woman going to think of me?” she said.

But she later told her story publicly in the hope that others would swallow their pride and seek help. “She really helped me save my house,” Ms. Amico said of Ms. Wright. “She was with me from Step 1 all the way to the end.”

ECONOMIX; A Word of Advice During a Housing Slump: Rent

April 11, 2007, Wednesday
Late Edition - Final, Section A, Page 1, Column 2, 1176 words



DISPLAYING ABSTRACT - Analysis of housing costs reveals that people who bought over last two years have paid more for their housing than renters; housing prices may not yet have fallen far enough for buying to look better than renting, except for people who plan to stay in a home for many years; realtors insist that now is time to buy, but skeptics point to extended slump in housing prices in 1990s, following last boom, and argue that buying has never been quite as beneficial as realtors and others who make money off home purchases would have you believes

House flippers flop as market cools

By RYAN NAKASHIMA, AP Business Writer Sun Apr 29, 8:01 PM ET

LAS VEGAS - In the rampant real estate speculation of the Las Vegas valley three years ago, people lined up outside Pulte Homes sales offices overnight as if they were waiting for the release of the latest video game console or hot new movie.

Having seen his house in an upscale part of suburban Henderson, Nev. jump $200,000 in value in 18 months, Sam Schwartz felt he couldn't miss any part of the boom.

He spent the night in the parking lot with TV, snacks and drinks, along with about a hundred other people.

Schwartz intended to buy a new home and then quickly sell it within the year — for a huge profit. Most people waiting were flippers just like him, he said.

"We had seen real evidence of what was possible in this crazy, inflated market, and we just wanted to get a piece of that investment equity," Schwartz said.

But when home prices unexpectedly took a backward step, many investors seeking to cash in quickly were left "upside-down," or owing more on their mortgages than what their homes were worth.

The result was a glut of homes in the marketplace, communities spotted with empty houses and for sale signs — and a foreclosure rate in Nevada that leads the nation as owners unable to sell became saddled with unbearable debt payments.

Foreclosure filings across the United States rose 47 percent last month from a year ago to 149,150 — one for every 775 households, according to statistics from Realty Trac Inc., a foreclosure listing service. And for the third straight month, Nevada's foreclosure rate led the nation when it rose 220 percent from a year earlier to 4,738 filings, or one in every 183 households.

In Clark County, which encompasses Las Vegas, one of every 30 homes began the process toward foreclosure last year.

The day Schwartz reserved his home, the sales staff was raising prices $20,000 after every fifth buyer came inside. The $500,000 house he and his wife were eyeing had shot up to $540,000 by the time they sat down. Somehow, it still seemed like a good deal.

"Everybody was thinking, 'Hey it's not the end of the world, because the homes across town are selling for $720,000. We have almost $200,000 in equity in the house and it isn't even built yet,'" Schwartz said.

He and his wife put down $5,000 on a home that would end up costing $560,000 with upgrades.

While the Schwartzes were able to cancel before closing on a property that suddenly was worth only $490,000 — and recoup their deposit on a legal technicality — others were less fortunate.

Schwartz, a 44-year-old life coach, said he "narrowly escaped financial disaster." But the effects of the housing crunch would reverberate for years, he said, something he expects to see among the clients he coaches to succeed in their lives and careers.

"There's going to be a lot of depression, a lot of anger. A lot drinking, gambling, and desperate stuff going on."

More than other states hit by the mortgage lending crunch, the high foreclosure rate in Nevada, California and Florida was driven by speculation, said Rick Sharga, vice president of marketing for Realty Trac.

"It was a combustible mix of risky loans and risky real estate deals," he said.

Russ Valone, the chief executive of research firm MarketPointe Realty Advisors, said speculators in San Diego were putting deposits on downtown condo units under construction, assuming they could sell them at a profit when they were finished.

"There were guys out there that were rolling the dice just as if they were going to Las Vegas," Valone said.

When the market slowed, many buyers forfeited their deposits, or let their properties get repossessed by the banks. As a result, the inventory of unoccupied condo units downtown since early 2005 has soared fivefold, he said.

New home builders are slowing down the pace of new projects in Las Vegas and are giving agents commissions of up to 12 percent and up to $100,000 in upgrades such as pools, granite countertops and appliances.

"The speculators completely dried up," said Paul Murad, a real estate observer and author of "Manhattanizing Las Vegas."

In Miami, the rush of condo building and speculative buying has slowed to a crawl, said real estate agent Penni Hurley. Florida's foreclosure filings rose 54 percent from a year ago to 14,303 in March, or one filing for every 511 households.

"The market was on steroids and now it's going through a much-needed correction," Hurley said.

With forecasts of a nationwide 1 percent home price decline this year, there's no way to flip for a profit now, said Jay Brinkmann, vice president of research and economics with the Mortgage Bankers Association.

"One would have to logically assume that (flippers) are no longer in the market," he said.

But some are still feeling the pain.

Jason Beaver, a Sunnyvale, Calif.-based Apple Inc. programmer, got caught up in the talk of the hot housing market from friends who bought multiple homes in Las Vegas and made a killing.

His name was drawn in a buyers' lottery in the Solera subdivision and he put $35,300 down on a $353,000 home in February 2004. The community is restricted to people age 55 or older; the 37-year-old Beaver had no intention of moving in.

That summer, the housing market began to soften. He nervously put the house on the market for a break-even price the same day escrow closed. He got no offers.

A tight market had suddenly become flush with resale homes as investors sought to cash out. Pulte was one of several builders to slash new home prices, in some cases by as much as $80,000 in a single day. Beaver and others are suing, but the company has said it was simply reacting to new conditions in an overheated market.

Beaver has been renting the home out for about a $1,000 a month, despite monthly expenses around $2,000.

And the supply of available homes is growing.

In March, the number of resale listings for single family homes, condos and townhouses in the Las Vegas valley grew 30 percent from a year ago to 27,282, according to the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors. Sales and the value of homes sold were both down 38 percent from a year ago. About half the homes available have been on the market for more than two months.

"Two years ago, you'd set a price that looked right and you'd get offers that were $20,000, $30,000, $40,000 over your list price. You have to be more realistic today," said Devin Reiss, president of the Realtors association.

With Nevada's fast-growing population and an estimated 8,000 net new residents coming to Las Vegas every month, experts predict the glut of housing will be cleared in six months to more than a year.

State lawmakers are considering a range of bills that clamp down on the easy mortgage lending that helped heat up the market, including making it a crime for lenders to issue mortgages with little or no verification of a borrower's ability to pay.

"The biggest loan I ever saw, a person bought a $1 million property and only had to come up with $1,000 in cash," said Scott Bice, the state's commissioner of mortgage lending.

"I don't think anything will ever prevent speculation," he said, but added that new regulations and tighter credit requirements by lenders will eventually return the market to the good old days: "When it takes good credit and money in a transaction to close it."

For those caught up in the frenzy of a few years ago, the changes come too little, too late.

Beaver figures he has spent $50,000 on his investment home, and will have to come up with $30,000 more to pay off the mortgage after he sells it at a loss.

While he's not completely sworn off real estate investing, Beaver said next time he'll try a more traditional approach — to buy and hold for the long term.

"The fast-growth, make-a-quick-buck real estate investment, I don't think I'll try again," he said.

British banks told to plan for 40% crash in housing

By Patrick Hosking

The Times, London

Thursday, November 16, 2006



Banks in the United Kingdom have been ordered by financial regulators to assess how they would cope in the event of house prices crashing by 40 percent. The instruction to include a housing slump scenario in their stress-testing models comes after the Financial Services Authority found that some banks were failing to include gloomy enough assumptions in their modelling.



The FSA said yesterday that an "appropriate" benchmark was to assume property prices fell by 40 percent and that 35 percent of mortgages in default ended with homes being repossessed. It stressed that this was not a forecast but a "severe but plausible scenario" and one that banks should examine when deciding how robust their balance sheets were.



In a speech to the British Bankers' Association yesterday, Clive Briault, the FSA's managing director for retail markets, remarked on banks' differing views over the size and impact of a house market downturn, and hence the need for reference points.



He also warned bankers to ensure that they have properly stress-tested their mortgage portfolios in the wake of decisions by some to lend people greater multiples of their incomes.



In a letter to bank chief executives last month the FSA accused some of failing to consider scenarios in which they might be forced into losses, dividend cuts or capital shortfalls.



"We were struck by how mild the firm-wide stress events were at some of the firms we visited," wrote the FSA's director of major retail groups, David Strachan.



A few banks were "weak in all respects" in stress-testing.



House prices fell about 15 percent nationwide in, and in parts of East Anglia by 40 percent, leading to repossessions, write-downs, and bank losses.



Banks are obliged to stress-test hypothetical adverse movements in asset prices, interest rates, and exchange rates to ensure that they have a sufficient capital cushion. But stress-testing is only as robust as the assumptions made.



The FSA move came as UK house prices grew at their fastest for four years, according to new figures from RICS.

Wednesday

"Is It Too Late to Get Out?"

Housing Bubble Boondoggle
April 24, 2007 By MIKE WHITNEY Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson delivered an upbeat assessment of the slumping real estate market on Friday saying, "All the signs I look at" show "the housing market is at or near the bottom." Baloney. Paulson added that the meltdown in subprime mortages was not a "serious problem. I think it's going to be largely contained." Wrong again. Paulson knows full well that the housing market is headed for a crash and probably won't bounce back for the next 4 or 5 years. That's why Congress is slapping together a bailout package that will keep struggling homeowners out of foreclosure. If defaults keep skyrocketing at the present rate they are liable to bring the whole economy down in a heap. Last week, the Senate convened the Joint Economic Committee, chaired by Senator Charles Schumer. The committee's job is to develop a strategy to keep delinquent subprime mortgage holders in their homes. It may look like the congress is looking out for the little guy, but that's not the case. As Schumer noted, "The subprime mortgage meltdown has economic consequences that will ripple through our communities unless we act." Schumer's right. The repercussions of millions of homeowners defaulting on their loans could be a major hit for Wall Street and the banking sector. That's what Schumer is worried about---not the plight of over-leveraged homeowners. Every day now, another major lending institution unveils its plan for bailing out the housing market. Citigroup and Bank of America have joined forces to create the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America which will provide $1 billion for the rescue of subprime loans. This will allow homeowners to refinance their mortgages and keep them out of foreclosure. The new "30- year loans will carry a fixed interest rate one point below the prime rate, putting it currently at 5.5 percent. There are no fees, and the banks pay all the closing costs." But why are the banks being so generous if, as Paulson says, "the housing market is at or near the bottom." This proves that the Treasury Secretary is full of malarkey and that the problem is much bigger than he's letting on. Last week, Washington Mutual announced a $2 billion program to slow foreclosures (Washington Mutual's subprime segment lost $164 million in the first quarter) while Freddie Mac committed a whopping $20 billion to the same goal. In fact, Freddie Mac announced that it "would stretch the loan term to a maximum of 40 years from the current 30-year limit." 40 years!?! How about a 60 or 80 year mortgage? Can you sense the desperation? And yet, Paulson says he doesn't see the subprime meltdown as a "serious problem"! Paulson's comments have had no effect on the Federal Reserve. The Fed has been frantically searching for a strategy that will deal with the rising foreclosures. On Wednesday, The Washington Post reported that "Federal bank regulators called on lenders to work with distressed borrowers unable to meet payments on high-risk mortgages to help them keep their homes". Huh? When was the last time the feds ordered the privately-owned banks to rewrite loans? Never--that's when. That gives us some idea of how bad things really are. The details of the meltdown are being downplayed in the media to prevent panic-selling among the public. But the Fed knows what's going on. They know that "U.S. mortgage default rates hit an all-time high in the first quarter of 2007" and that "the percentage of mortgages in default rose to a record 2.87%". In fact, the Federal Reserve and the five other federal agencies that regulate banks issued this statement just last week: "Prudent workout arrangements that are consistent with safe and sound lending practices are generally in the long-term best interest of both the financial institution and the borrowerInstitutions will not face regulatory penalties if they pursue reasonable workout arrangements with borrowers." Translation: "Rewrite the loans! Promise them anything! Just make sure they remain shackled to their houses!" Unfortunately, the problem won't be "fixed" with a $30 or $40 billion bailout scheme. The problem is much bigger than that. There is an estimated $2.5 trillion in subprimes and Alt-A loans---20% of which are expected enter foreclosure in the next few years. Any up-tick in interest rates or unemployment will only aggravate the situation. Kenneth Heebner, manager of CGM Realty Fund (Capital Growth Management), provided a realistic forecast of what we can expect in the near future as defaults increase. Heebner: "The Greatest Price Decline in Housing since the Great Depression" (Bloomberg News interview) "The real wave of pain and foreclosures is just beginning.subprimes and Alt-A are both in trouble. A lot of these will go into default. The reason is, that the people who took these out never really intended to fully service the mortgage---they were counting on rising home prices so they could sign on the dotted line without showing what their income was and then 2 years later flip into another junk mortgage and get a big profit out of the house with putting anything down "There's a $1.5 trillion in subprimes and $1 trillion in Alt-A the catalyst will be declining house prices which is already underway. But as we get a large amount of these $2.5 trillion mortgages go into default, we'll see foreclosed houses dumped on an already weak market where homebuilders are already struggling to sell there houses. The price declines which have started will continue and may even accelerate in some of the hotter markets. I would expect that housing prices in "2007 will decline 20% in a lot of markets". "What you are going to see is the greatest price decline in housing since the Great Depression..The one thing that people should not do, is go near a CDO or a residential mortgage backed security rated Triple A by Moody's and S&P because these are going to get down-graded by the hundreds of millions---because they are secured by subprime and Alt-A mortgages where there'll be massive defaults". Question: "Will the losses in the mortgage market exceed those in the S&L crisis?" Heebner: "They're going to dwarf those losses because the losses could easily approach $1 trillion---that dwarfs anything that has ever happened. Enron was $100 billion---this will be far greater than that..The good news is that most of these loans are owned by Hedge FundsYou hedge funds buying these subprime and Alt-A loans and leveraging them at 10 to 1. They buy a pool of mortgages at 8% and they borrow against it in yen for 3% and then lever it at 10 to 1so you have a lucrative profit And the hedge fund you are running, the manager is going to get 20% of the gain---so even if it's a year before you go broke; you get rich until the fund is shut down". Heebner added this instructive comment: "The brokerage firms created "securitization" they know the products are toxic. I don't think they are going to suffer losses; they simply passed them on to everyone else. The only impact this will have is the profits that flow from it will get less.But it is less than 3% of revenues in even the most exposed brokerage firm so THEY'RE NOT GOING TO GET CAUGHT." Although Heebner believes the brokerage houses will do fine; the same is not true for the small investor. Nearly 70% of subprimes have been securitized. That means that the vast number of shoddy "no down payment, no document, interest-only" loans (that are headed for default) have been transformed into securities and sold to hedge funds. As the housing market continues to falter, these funds will plummet at an inverse rate to the amount of leverage that has been applied. That may explain why, (according to Bloomberg Markets) the "wealthiest Americans have been bailing out" of hedge funds at an alarming rate. A report in last Thursday's New York Times stated: "Americans with a net worth of at least $25 million, excluding the value of their primary homes, reduced their exposure to hedge funds in 2006"-- The amount of money held by wealthy investors in hedge funds has dropped dramatically-- "The average balance, which was $2.8 million in 2005, was just $1.6 million last year, a 43 percent decline". So, what do America's richest investors know that the rest of us don't? Could it be that the over-leveraged hedge funds industry is about to get hammered by the subprime implosion? If so, it won't be the brokerage houses or savvy insiders who get hurt. It'll be the little guys and the pension funds that take a drubbing. In Henry C K Liu's "Why the Subprime Bust will Spread" (Asia Times) the author states that the bursting housing bubble will trigger a major pension crisis. After all, who are the "institutional investors? They are mostly pension funds that manage the money the US working public depends on for retirement. In other words, the aggregate retirement assets of the working public are exposed to the risk of the same working public defaulting on their house mortgages". (Liu) The origins of the housing bubble are complex, but they are worth understanding if we want to know how things will progress. The housing bubble is not merely the result of low interest rates and shabby lending practices. As Liu says, "the bubble was caused by creative housing finance made possible by the emergence of a deregulated global credit market through finance liberalization. The low cost of mortgages lifted all US house prices beyond levels sustainable by household income in otherwise disaggregated markets". The deregulated cross-border flow of funds (via the yen low interest "carry trade" or the $800 billion current account deficit) have played a major role in inflating the US real estate market. Liu adds, "Since the money financing this housing bubble is sourced globally, a bursting of the US housing bubble will have dire consequences globally."Since nearly 50% of "securitized" mortgage debt is owned by foreign investors; the subprime meltdown is bound send tremors through the entire global financial system. The housing decline is further complicated by Wall Street innovations in derivatives trading which has generated trillions of dollars in "virtual" wealth and is affecting the Feds ability to control inflation through interest rate manipulation. As Kenneth Heebner said, "You have hedge funds buying these subprime and Alt-A loans and leveraging them at 10 to 1. They buy a pool of mortgages at 8% and they borrow against it in yen for 3% and then lever it at 10 to 1so you have a lucrative profit." In other words, low interest foreign capital has flooded US markets and contributed to distortions in housing prices. In her recent article "War Drags the Dollar Down", Ann Berg refers to Wall Street's "swirling galaxy of exotic finance" which has "worked magic for the government and the elite", but has yet to weather a severe downturn in the economy. But how will market deal with sudden downturn in the hedge fund industry? Will the dodgy subprimes and shaky collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) trigger a crash or has the risk been wisely dispersed through derivatives trading? No one really knows. As Berg says, "Derivatives numbers are staggering. The Bank for International Settlements estimates that the notional amount of derivatives traded on regulated exchanges topped a quadrillion dollars last year and that the outstanding unregulated off-exchange (called over-the-counter OTC) amount stood at $370 trillion in June 2006. Because the OTC market is composed of endless strings of bilateral transactions the systemic risk is unknown." The comments of the President of the New York Fed, Timothy Geithner, help to clarify the abstruse activities of the modern market: "Credit market innovations have transformed the financial system from one in which most credit risk is in the form of loans, held to maturity on the balance sheets of banks, to a system in which most credit risk now takes an incredibly diverse array of different forms, much of it held by nonbank financial institutions that mark to market and can take on substantial leverage." Geither's right. The markets now operate as unregulated banks generating mountains of credit through massively leveraged debt instruments---a monster credit bubble larger than anything in the history of capitalism. So, where is all this headed? No one really knows. But when the housing bubble crashes into Wall Street's credit bubble,; we can expect the "big bang". That may explain why America's wealthiest investors are running for cover before the whole thing blows. (A number of investors have already cashed out and put there holdings into foreign funds and currencies) One thing is certain ---time is running out. With $1 trillion in subprimes and Alt-A loans headed for default the system is facing its greatest challenge. US- GDP has been revised to a measly 1.8%, foreign investment is down, and the dollar is losing ground to the euro on an almost weekly basis. Falling home prices have already precipitated a number of other problems. For example, Gene Sperling reports in "Housing Bust Meets the Equity Blues" that "The Fed data showed an amazing expansion (in Mortgage-Equity Withdrawal). In 1995, active MEW had been $37 billion. By the fourth quarter of 2005, it soared to $532 billion annualized, a 14-fold expansion". These equity withdrawals have translated into consumer spending which accounts for at least 1 full percentage point of GDP. Declining house prices means that extra boast for the economy will now disappear. Foreclosures are soaring and expected to get worse for the next two years at least. In California foreclosure filings jumped 79% in March alone. Other "hot markets" are reporting similar figures. The glut of new homes for sale on the market has slammed sales of the nation's major builders; most are reporting profits are down by 40% or more. The collapse of the subprime mortgage market is also pushing some big U.S. homebuilders toward Chapter 11. According to Bloomberg News, "Some builders are staying out of bankruptcy by relying on the profits they made when sales boomed" in 2004 and 2005. Starting next year they must begin to repay $3.6 billion in public debt in what will certainly be a falling market. The prospects don't look good. Also, Credit card debt is way up (nearly 7% in one year) and economists are predicting that the trajectory will continue now that home equity is vanishing. Americans savings rate is in negative numbers and the steep increase in credit card debt (with its high interest rates) only compounds the problem. The American consumer has now compiled more personal debt than anytime in history. The Grim Reaper Meets the Housing Bubble Those who follow developments in real estatehave heard many of the wacky anecdotes related to the housing bubble. Stories abound of young people buying homes just to pay off tens of thousands of dollars of collage loans with their "presto"-equity ---or low paid construction laborers securing 105% loans without any proof of income and a poor credit history. One of the stories that got national attention was about Alberto and Rosa Ramirez, who worked as strawberry pickers in the fields around Watsonville each earning about $300 a week. They (somehow?) qualified for a loan of $720,000 which paid for a "new" four-bedroom, two-bath house in Hollister. It's sheer madness! Obviously, those days are over. The speculative frenzy that was generated by the Fed's low interest rates, the banks lax lending standards, and the deregulated global credit market is drawing to a close. The fallout from the collapse in subprime-loans will roil the stock market and hedge funds, but, as Heebner says, the investment banks and brokerage firms will escape without a bruise. Where's the justice? Despite Hank Paulson's cheery predictions, we are no where "near the bottom". In fact, a recent survey showed that only 1 in 7 Americans believe that house prices will go down. Even now, very few people grasp the underlying issues or the potential for disaster. We're on a treadmill to oblivion and they think it's a merry-go-round. As housing prices tumble, more homeowners will experience "negative equity", that is, when the current value of their home is less than the sum of their mortgage. This is the very definition of modern serfdom. We can expect to see an erosion of confidence in the market, a rise in inventory, and a steady increase in defaults.More and more people will walk away from their homes rather than be hand-cuffed to an asset that loses value every day. This could transform a "housing correction" into a nation-wide financial calamity. Many peoples' futures are linked directly to the "anticipated" value of their homes.It is impossible to determine how shocked they'll be when prices retreat and equity shrivels. The housing flame-out has all the makings of a national trauma"another violent jolt to the fragile American psyche. So far, we're still in the first phase of a process that will probably play out for 10 years or more. (Judging by Japan's decades-long decline) None of the bailout plans are large enough to make any quantifiable difference.The numbers are just too big. Housing prices are coming down and the real estate market will return to fundamentals. That much is certain. The law of gravity can only be ignored for so long. Just don't count on a "soft landing". Special thanks to (Housing Crash News) See entire Kenneth Heebner interview at http://patrick.net/housing/contrib/future.html Mike Whitney lives in Washington state. He can be reached at: fergiewhitney@msn.com

Sunday

Sim City and John F. Kennedy

Signs of the Times for Tue, 07 Nov 2006

Laura Knight-Jadczyk





Conservatives are fond of telling us what a wonderful, happy, prosperous nation this is. The only thing that matches their love of country is the remarkable indifference they show toward the people who live in it. To their ears the anguished cries of the dispossessed sound like the peevish whines of malcontents. They denounce as "bleeding hearts" those of us who criticize existing conditions, who show some concern for our fellow citizens. But the dirty truth is that there exists a startling amount of hardship, abuse, affliction, illness, violence, and pathology in this country. The figures reveal a casualty list that runs into many millions. Consider the following estimates. In any one year:

* 27,000 Americans commit suicide.

* 5,000 attempt suicide; some estimates are higher.

* 26,000 die from fatal accidents in the home.

* 23,000 are murdered.

* 85,000 are wounded by firearms.

* 38,000 of these die, including 2,600 children.

* 13,000,000 are victims of crimes including assault, rape, armed robbery, burglary, larceny, and arson.

* 135,000 children take guns to school.

* 5,500,000 people are arrested for all offenses (not including traffic violations).

* 125,000 die prematurely of alcohol abuse.

* 473,000 die prematurely from tobacco-related illnesses; 53,000 of these are nonsmokers.

* 6,500,000 use heroin, crack, speed, PCP, cocaine or some other hard drug on a regular basis.

* 5,000+ die from illicit drug use. Thousands suffer serious debilitations.

* 1,000+ die from sniffing household substances found under the kitchen sink. About 20 percent of all eighth-graders have "huffed" toxic substances. Thousands suffer permanent neurological damage.

* 31,450,000 use marijuana; 3,000,000 of whom are heavy users.

* 37,000,000, or one out of every six Americans, regularly use emotion controlling medical drugs. The users are mostly women. The pushers are doctors; the suppliers are pharmaceutical companies; the profits are stupendous.

* 2,000,000 nonhospitalized persons are given powerful mind-control drugs, sometimes described as "chemical straitjackets."

* 5,000 die from psychoactive drug treatments.

* 200,000 are subjected to electric shock treatments that are injurious to the brain and nervous system.

* 600 to 1,000 are lobotomized, mostly women.

* 25,000,000, or one out of every 10 Americans, seek help from psychiatric, psychotherapeutic, or medical sources for mental and emotional problems, at a cost of over $4 billion annually.

* 6,800,000 turn to nonmedical services, such as ministers, welfare agencies, and social counselors for help with emotional troubles. In all, some 80,000,000 have sought some kind of psychological counseling in their lifetimes.

* 1,300,000 suffer some kind of injury related to treatment at hospitals.

* 2,000,000 undergo unnecessary surgical operations; 10,000 of whom die from the surgery.

* 180,000 die from adverse reactions to all medical treatments, more than are killed by airline and automobile accidents combined.

* 14,000+ die from overdoses of legal prescription drugs.

* 45,000 are killed in auto accidents. Yet more cars and highways are being built while funding for safer forms of mass transportation is reduced.

* 1,800,000 sustain nonfatal injuries from auto accidents; but 150,000 of these auto injury victims suffer permanent impairments.

* 126,000 children are born with a major birth defect, mostly due to insufficient prenatal care, nutritional deficiency, environmental toxicity, or maternal drug addiction.

* 2,900,000 children are reportedly subjected to serious neglect or abuse, including physical torture and deliberate starvation.

* 5,000 children are killed by parents or grandparents.

* 30,000 or more children are left permanently physically disabled from abuse and neglect. Child abuse in the United States afflicts more children each year than leukemia, automobile accidents, and infectious diseases combined. With growing unemployment, incidents of abuse by jobless parents is increasing dramatically.

* 1,000,000 children run away from home, mostly because of abusive treatment, including sexual abuse, from parents and other adults. Of the many sexually abused children among runaways, 83 percent come from white families.

* 150,000 children are reported missing.

* 50,000 of these simply vanish. Their ages range from one year to mid-teens. According to the New York Times, "Some of these are dead, perhaps half of the John and Jane Does annually buried in this country are unidentified kids."

* 900,000 children, some as young as seven years old, are engaged in child labor in the United States, serving as underpaid farm hands, dishwashers, laundry workers, and domestics for as long as ten hours a day in violation of child labor laws.

* 2,000,000 to 4,000,00 women are battered. Domestic violence is the single largest cause of injury and second largest cause of death to U.S. women.

* 700,000 women are raped, one every 45 seconds.

* 5,000,000 workers are injured on the job; 150,000 of whom suffer permanent work-related disabilities, including maiming, paralysis, impaired vision, damaged hearing, and sterility.

* 100,000 become seriously ill from work-related diseases, including black lung, brown lung, cancer, and tuberculosis.

* 14,000 are killed on the job; about 90 percent are men.

* 100,000 die prematurely from work-related diseases.

* 60,000 are killed by toxic environmental pollutants or contaminants in food, water, or air.

* 4,000 die from eating contaminated meat.

* 20,000 others suffer from poisoning by E.coli 0157-H7, the mutant bacteria found in contaminated meat that generally leads to lifelong physical and mental health problems. A more thorough meat inspection with new technologies could eliminate most instances of contamination--so would vegetarianism.

At present:

* 5,100,000 are behind bars or on probation or parole; 2,700,000 of these are either locked up in county, state or federal prisons or under legal supervision. Each week 1,600 more people go to jail than leave. The prison population has skyrocketed over 200 percent since 1980. Over 40 percent of inmates are jailed on nonviolent drug related crimes. African Americans constitute 13 percent of drug users but 35 percent of drug arrests, 55 percent of drug convictions and 74 percent of prison sentences. For non drug offenses, African Americans get prison terms that average about 10 percent longer than Caucasians for similar crimes.

* 15,000+ have tuberculosis, with the numbers growing rapidly; 10,000,000 or more carry the tuberculosis bacilli, with large numbers among the economically deprived or addicted.

* 10,000,000 people have serious drinking problems; alcoholism is on the rise.

* 16,000,000 have diabetes, up from 11,000,000 in 1983 as Americans get more sedentary and sugar addicted. Left untreated, diabetes can lead to blindness, kidney failure and nerve damage.

* 160,000 will die from diabetes this year.

* 280,000 are institutionalized for mental illness or mental retardation. Many of these are forced into taking heavy doses of mind control drugs.

* 255,000 mentally ill or retarded have been summarily released in recent years. Many of the "deinstitutionalized" are now in flophouses or wandering the streets.

* 3,000,000 or more suffer cerebral and physical handicaps including paralysis, deafness, blindness, and lesser disabilities. A disproportionate number of them are poor. Many of these disabilities could have been corrected with early treatment or prevented with better living conditions.

* 2,400,000 million suffer from some variety of seriously incapacitating chronic fatigue syndrome.

* 10,000,000+ suffer from symptomatic asthma, an increase of 145 percent from 1990 to 1995, largely due to the increasingly polluted quality of the air we breathe.

* 40,000,000 or more are without health insurance or protection from catastrophic illness.

* 1,800,000 elderly who live with their families are subjected to serious abuse such as forced confinement, underfeeding, and beatings. The mistreatment of elderly people by their children and other close relatives grows dramatically as economic conditions worsen.

* 1,126,000 of the elderly live in nursing homes. A large but undetermined number endure conditions of extreme neglect, filth, and abuse in homes that are run with an eye to extracting the highest possible profit.

* 1,000,000 or more children are kept in orphanages, reformatories, and adult prisons. Most have been arrested for minor transgressions or have committed no crime at all and are jailed without due process. Most are from impoverished backgrounds. Many are subjected to beatings, sexual assault, prolonged solitary confinement, mind control drugs, and in some cases psychosurgery.

* 1,000,000 are estimated to have AIDS as of 1996; over 250,000 have died of that disease.

* 950,000 school children are treated with powerful mind control drugs for "hyperactivity" every year--with side effects like weight loss, growth retardation and acute psychosis.

* 4,000,000 children are growing up with unattended learning disabilities.

* 4,500,000+ children, or more than half of the 9,000,000 children on welfare, suffer from malnutrition. Many of these suffer brain damage caused by prenatal and infant malnourishment.

* 40,000,000 persons, or one of every four women and more than one of every ten men, are estimated to have been sexually molested as children, most often between the ages of 9 and 12, usually by close relatives or family acquaintances. Such abuse almost always extends into their early teens and is a part of their continual memory and not a product of memory retrieval in therapy.

* 7,000,000 to 12,000,000 are unemployed; numbers vary with the business cycle. Increasing numbers of the chronically unemployed show signs of stress and emotional depression.

* 6,000,000 are in "contingent" jobs, or jobs structured to last only temporarily. About 60 percent of these would prefer permanent employment.

* 15,000,000 or more are part-time or reduced-time "contract" workers who need full-time jobs and who work without benefits.

* 3,000,000 additional workers are unemployed but uncounted because their unemployment benefits have run out, or they never qualified for benefits, or they have given up looking for work, or they joined the armed forces because they were unable to find work.

* 80,000,000 live on incomes estimated by the U.S. Department of Labor as below a "comfortable adequacy"; 35,000,000 of these live below the poverty level.

* 12,000,000 of those at poverty's rock bottom suffer from chronic hunger and malnutrition. The majority of the people living at or below the poverty level experience hunger during some portion of the year.

* 2,000,000 or more are homeless, forced to live on the streets or in makeshift shelters.

* 160,000,000+ are members of households that are in debt, a sharp increase from the 100 million of less than a decade ago. A majority indicate they have borrowed money not for luxuries but for necessities. Mounting debts threaten a financial crack-up in more and more families.

A Happy Nation? Obviously these estimates include massive duplications. Many of the 20 million unemployed are among the 35 million below the poverty level. Many of the malnourished children are also among those listed as growing up with untreated learning disabilities and almost all are among the 35 million poor. Many of the 37 million regular users of mind-control drugs also number among the 25 million who seek psychiatric help.





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